bordertalks

The Polish journalist Malgorzata Kulbaczewska-Figat and her Bulgarian colleague Vladimir Mitev have established a podcast on international relations. In this intro they say a few words about their intentions.

Malgorzata Kulbaczewska-Figat and Vladimir Mitev discuss the 11 July 2021 parliamentary elections in Bulgaria and the Republic of Moldova. These two countries have common characteristics: oligarchic social models, they had stolen banks in the last ten years, etc. The Moldovan voters emitted a clear pro-EU message and desire for anticorruption. The Bulgarian voters didn't provide conclusive results, just as the previous elections - on 4 April 2021. But Bulgaria is in the process of dismantling of the regime of Boyko Borissov, while Moldova already got rid of its oligarch a few years ago and now the voters want his remaining influnce to be wiped away.

In the second episode of the Cross-border Talks podcast Malgorzata Kulbaczewska-Figat and Vladimir Mitev discuss with the Romanian university professor of European affairs and international relations Sergiu Mişcoiu. The topic is the concept of EU's strategic autonomy, which is being promoted by France's Emmanuel Macron. It is in competition with the Atlantist current in the EU, supported by Germany, northern nations and countries in Central and Southeastern Europe. The interview also deals with the issue of Polish-EU relations and a possible Polexit, as well as the possible strategic partners of an "autonomous EU". According to Sergiu Mişcoiu, even though autonomists want to distance themselves from the USA, that wouldn't mean that neoimperialist Russia will become an easier partner. But Africa is much more likely to cooperate with the EU, especially if the EU starts speaking in one voice. At the end of the day, the strategic autonomy has a lot to do with security and military matters. An initiative in this sense is PESCO, which was established in 2017. But as Vladimir Mitev noted a strategic document on "open strategic autonomy" was expected to be produced by the European Commission in July 2021, but its publication seems to be getting delayed for the autumn. That is another sign, that there are constantly shifting balances in the EU and probably a consequence of the warming-up of relations with the USA in the times of Joe Biden.

Malgorzata Kulbacewska-Figat and Vladimir Mitev discuss about the recent summit of the Three Seas Initiative in Sofia. They explain why the Bulgarian president Rumen Radev hosted and strongly supported it, while the Polish enthusiasm for it is on the decrease. They also have a look at other initiatives for regional cooperation in Central and Eastern Europe. The segment contains also a moment from the press conference of the Three Seas Initiative Summit, where the Bulgarian president Rumen Radev outlines what has been achieved at the international forum.

In the second segment of the third episode of the Cross-border Talks Malgorzata Kulbaczewska-Figat tries to find out a number of issues about Iran's attitude towards the Taliban, the foreign policy priorities of the new administration of the president Ebrahim Raisi and the future of the nuclear agreement. Vladimir Mitev - a Bulgarian-Romanian Iranologist, explains that Iran has certain duality within the state and society. E.g. it has two armies - a national one and one loyal to the Islamic character of the country - the Revolutionary Guards. And the attitudes towards the Taliban are different. One hand the Revolutionary Guards are engaging the Taliban. On the other hand, Iranians have experience of suffering from the Taliban and fear possible getting involved in "a trap" in Afghanistan set up for them. The cabinet of Rouhani had a general pro-Western foreign policy line. But the fact that Raisi's foreign minister Amir Abdollahian looks to the East, doesn't mean that Iran makes a truly major shift. Its pro-Western people, the pro-European middle class remain present. Towards the end of the interview the two interlocutors discuss the various social, economic, medical, humanitarian and water crisis in Iran. Their conclusion is that those crisis require international cooperation between Iran and the world. And that means that relations with and of Tehran should not be seen only as power relations. The people's interests must be in the center of international relations.

Bartosz Rydlinski (former Carnegie Endowment for International Peace associate) comments on the recent developments in Afghanistan for the third episode of Cross-border Talks. He has a number of observations: the USA's public opinion is supportive of the American withdrawal, the Taliban have undergone evolution, just as Afghan women have done, regional powers rely on them for security and stability. Rydlinski claims that the Iranian role for the future of Afghanistan will become more important, especially if it is constructive from international point of view. The Polish expert also studies the current crisis from the perspective of the Afghan people in this interview, which he gives to Malgorzata Kulbaczewska-Figat and Vladimir Mitev.

The 17th Batumi International Conference of the EU and the three students of exclellence in the Eastern Partnership - Ukraine, Georgia and the Republic of Moldova, represents a change of the EU policy. From now on the three countries' ties to the EU will be promoted, while the EU relations with the other three countries - Belarus, Armenia and Azerbaijan, most likely not advance significantly. In the second episode of the Cross-Border Talks Malgorzata Kulbaczewska-Figat makes a thorough analysis on the geopolitical perspectives of the three Eastern Partnership students of excellence. The USA views strategically its relationship with them, because of security and military issues. Russia has the trump card of frozen conflicts, which as seen in Nagorno Karabakh can get reactivated unexpectedly. But while Russia opposes the advancement of NATO in the region, it is also less opposed to the EU's strategy towards the three countries. At the Batumi International Conference EU Council's president Charles Michael announced that the EU will support the three countries in fighting the negative outcome of the pandemic with public and private investment, which could reach 17 billion euro. The second pillar of EU's strategy to the region is the transport interconnectvity. The third, final pillar, is the most vague one - the issue of reform, of rule of law and respect of procedures. Malgorzata Kulbaczewska reminded that the people of the three countries are generally lacking perspectives and see the opening to the EU as a solution of the economic problems through emigration. But the future of the region remains bleak. Vladimir Mitev reminded that the EU generally has appeal to the middle classes all over its neighbourhood, but it needs to be studied what it can offer to the underprivileged layers of society. In any case the 17th Batumi International Conference could be seen as a sign that the EU remains engaged in its Eastern Neighbourhood - but it admits certain failure with one group of countries, and prefers to focus on the other group, that is more open to Europeanisation.

Malgorzata Kulbaczewska-Figat interviews Vladimir Mitev about current Bulgarian politics: the expected parliamentary and presidential elections on 14th November 2021, the inability of Bulgarian parliament to form a government, the rise of president Rumen Radev. Vladimir observes that Bulgaria is an oligarchy, with the agenda of businessmen and not the one of people dominating in political and media life. Also, he notes that Bulgaria is not an island and the international contradictions seem to be getting interiorised by Bulgarian socety: Bidenists vs. Trumpists, open strategic autonomy of the EU against euroatlanticism in the EU, etc. Vladimir also makes a few observations and conclusions about the Bulgarian society: how intrigues and plots are not clearly articulated publicly, but people are aware what do they and their opponents stand for ("Everything is secret and everything is know”). He also discusses about what might bring hope, dynamics, change in Bulgarian society. In his view internationalisation, adoption of international standards and moving away from the social model, based on in-groups can offer hope.

In the summer of 2021 - an year after the start of the protests against president Lukashenko in Belarus, Malgorzata Kulbacewska-Figat discusses the humanitarian and geopolitical aspects of the news crisis on the northern border of the EU - the migrant one. For weeks migrants from the Middle East have been reaching three EU countries - Lithuania, Latvia and Poand via Belarus. What is the role of Belarus and Russia in that? How does Poland and the EU react? What is Malgorzata's prognosis about the development of the crisis? The answers are in the second segment of the fourth episode of Cross-Border Talks.

Konrad Watrin, former DPA foreign correspondent and present professor in history and social sciences speaks to Cross-border Talks about what the future German government of Olaf Scholz is expected to do. In his view, there are plenty of social problems that the country faces - such as the falling consumption force of its middle class and professionals. The international relations are also a challenge - with unprecedented developments taking place around. In May 2021 France and the UK sent military ships to protect their fisherman over a dispute for "sea resources" that one could have never imagined until recently. On the other hand, to the East Poland and Hungary are a clear challenge to the EU's undertanding as "unions of values", based on EU law superior to national legislation. Beyond Europe, Russia and especially China pose an ever larger challenge through what Watrin refers as "neo-colonialism" on the part of Beijing. In this situation Germans have voted for different faces, but in fact for stability, for more of the same. And while Merkel have done some things well, there are many issues she didn't bother to confront. One of them is the fate of the EU - the great project of peace, which for the first time since its creation is threatened with unravelling. After Brexit, it is now Poland which challenges the European unified order. The tensions between the Poland and the EU instititutions made Malgorzata Kulbaczewska-Figat the co-host of the podcast, and Konrad Watrin agree that the current Polish goverenment represents an anti-EU stance, that has the support of a minority of Poles. The majority is obviously pro-European and wants it to be an union where EU values and EU funds go hand in hand. And Konrad Watrin is sure that Olaf Scholz will confront the Polish leaders as soon as the new German govenrment is sworn in. He also made the conclusion, that Hungary has gone probably beyond the point of return in its opening to Russia. In any case, the EU will be undergoing change in the time that come and Germany will be the most influental country within the EU in what follows.

A month after The Cross-border Talks recorded its segment on migrant crisis on the EU-Belarussian border Malgorzata Kulbaczewska-Figat return to this issue in order to point out some new development. Following the Polish government's policy of not providing care for the migrants, stuck in the border are, the first victims of low temeratures have died. Also, Malgorzata reminds that while Brussels is in a looming confrontation with Warsaw on the isssue of rule of law, it looks like it supports the Polish government in its approach to the migrant crisis.

Following a rise in strikes and grassroots labour activism in Poland, Cross-border Talks made a discussion about the current state of affairs there, in Romania and Bulgaria. Malgorzata Kulbaczewska presented the case of "hope" - sharing analysis about labour unionism in Poland and video footage from a 24 January 2022 protest in the plant for electric buses Solaris. Radu Stochita - the youngest communicator of the labour union movement in Romania, spoke about the attitudes in Romania towards strikes. Both Malgorzata and Radu seemed to be hopeful about new generation of activism. Vladimir Mitev shared his views on the difficulties before labour unions in Bulgaria and explained why in his view change from below is difficult in his home country and if change is to happen, it will probably be imposed from above. The video footage from the Solaris plant protest is in Polish, but English-language subtitles can be activated.

Codru Vrabie - a Bucharest-based expert on good governance, who has been involved in training of young "Leaders in Justice" in Romania and the Republic of Moldova speaks to Cross-border Talks about the perspectives before Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine after they applied for EU membership. He is skeptical that the fast track accession for them is realistic in the short term, but points out that the three countries are fighting now for what the EU represents, and deserve to be supported - economically, organizationally, morally. He discusses about the successes of the Moldova e-government as well as the ongoing judicial reforms. He also points out that the home affairs and justice are traditionally the most difficult EU accession chapters in Southeastern Europe. He also comments on the role Poland, Romania and Bulgaria could play in the current crisis - humanely - for the refugees, but also in the mid-term and long-term to provide perspectives before the elites and the people of Eastern Partnership. As for military support for Ukraine - it is morally justified, but "a political suicide". Real military support can only be given by neutral states. The cases of Austria and possibly India need to be studied in this sense.

Cross-border Talks takes on the Russian military invasion in Ukraine together with Veronika Sušová-Salminen - a Czech-Finnish expert on Russia and the Polish journalist Malgorzata Kulbaczewska-Figat (who speaks Russian and Ukrainian). TLDR: Putin's invasion of Ukraine has backfired, causing suffering for the Ukrainian people, creating a complex security crisis in Europe, and potentially weakening Russia's global position. 1. 00:00 🚨 The ongoing military invasion of Ukraine by Russia has not achieved Putin's aims, causing suffering for the Ukrainian people and creating a complex security crisis in Europe. 1.1 Ukrainian people are suffering the consequences of an imperialist war waged by Russia, and the escalation of the crisis is a surprise even to analysts. 1.2 The systemic crisis of the security environment in Europe is complex and difficult to solve due to the collision between the atlanticist and continental concepts of security orientation. 2. 06:03 🚨 Ukraine caught in conflict between great powers, US wants to stop Russia, war ends cooperation between West and Russia, sanctions imposed on Russia, but not enough as Russia has Chinese ally. 2.1 The United States wants to stop Russia from becoming a great power and is using Ukraine to do so, while Ukraine is also searching for its own identity as a more pro-western nation. 2.2 The war in Ukraine has put an end to the possibility of cooperation between the West and Russia, and the West's reaction to the conflict is being judged. 2.3 Sanctions imposed on Russia, including blocking certain banks' access to the SWIFT system and banning Russian state media in the EU, are a significant symbolic step with potential personal consequences for Putin and Lavrov, and the EU is also announcing new sanctions against Belarus for its involvement in the invasion. 2.4 Sanctions in Europe are not enough, as Russia has a Chinese ally and China is willing to help Russia in view of the sanctions. 3. 11:50 🚨 Europe is divided on response to Ukraine invasion, impacting NATO's role and leading to potential militarization and US base increase. 3.1 Huge demonstrations against war and invasion in Europe, with societies willing to help refugees, while political centers are less decisive due to capitalist interests. 3.2 The security environment in Europe will change with a high level of militarization, potential increase in US bases, and a shift in the role of NATO and the European Union. 4. 16:29 🚨 Putin's decision to recognize Donetsk and Luhansk backfired, strengthening NATO and increasing support for Ukraine's acceptance into the alliance and the EU, potentially leading to a new cold war with consequences for central and eastern Europe and the involvement of China. 4.1 Putin's actions have inadvertently strengthened NATO and increased support for Ukraine's acceptance into the alliance and the European Union. 4.2 Russia's actions in Ukraine may have led to a new cold war, with potential consequences for central and eastern Europe, and the involvement of China in the geopolitical equation. 5. 20:57 🚨 Putin's miscalculated invasion of Ukraine may weaken Europe's global position and lead to a shift in international relations. 5.1 Vladimir Putin may not have a good understanding of the reality within his system and the situation in Ukraine, as the Ukrainians did not crumble under attack. 5.2 Putin's decision to invade Ukraine was a miscalculation based on Russian interests, as they underestimated the situation and are acting against their own interests. 5.3 Putin's desire for less NATO and a potential reorientation towards China could lead to a significant shift in international relations, potentially weakening Europe's global position. 6. 25:33 🚨 Putin's fatal mistake was attacking Ukraine, as Ukrainians do not see Russia as a better alternative and it has put Russia in a position of dependence on China, potentially leading to future confrontations between the US and China. 6.1 Putin's invasion of Ukraine has put Russia in a position of dependence on China, leading to potential future confrontations between the US and China. 6.2 The speaker briefly discusses the similarities between China and Russia. 7. 30:32 🚨Putin will become more dependent on China, losing the opportunity to balance between China and the West, but Russia will still have other countries willing to do business with them. 8. 37:48 🚨 Russian-speaking Ukrainians assert their identity, protests in Russia indicate division, surprise invasion causes shock and protests, potential negative consequences for Putin's stability and Russian economy.