Crush The Market

US CPI reports comes in cooler then expected, sending stocks, bonds & commodities soaring. With US dollar rolling over on the news. Major US stock indices saw gains over between 4-5% on Thursday CPI report, despite real wages falling for the 19th month in a row. Friday saw China change its quarantine time from positive cases, which boosted commodities across the board with the Bloomberg index up 1.5% on the news. With commodities rising again on a weakening dollar, I'm expecting inflation to move higher again in the medium to long term, undoing the falls seen in Y/Y CPI in US. In addition historically, a FED pivot usually means stocks head lower not higher in the medium term. However markets are ignoring all of this as they head higher. Inflation expectations in US saw another rise from consumers which Powell watches closely, meanwhile consumer confidence is looking terrible with new lows created in US property buying conditions. Once again US stocks are ignoring it all. Meanwhile wholesale gasoline prices are on the rise in the US, which will lead to retail pump prices moving higher very soon & causing further price pressure on consumers. Technical charts reviewed include: SPX, DOW, NDX, DAX, XJO, Gold, Oil & DXY. Links: https://www.cnbc.com/world/?region=world https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/core-cpi-inches-lower-40-year-highs-real-wages-tumble-19th-straight-month https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cool-cpi-print-sparks-massive-dovish-repricing-rate-expectations-bonds-stocks-soar https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/commodities-soar-after-china-eases-quarantine-rules https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-pivot-will-be-no-cure-stock-marketss-ills https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/powells-favorite-sentiment-signal-shows-inflation-expectations-rising-confidence https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/oil-trades-above-90-china-reopening-optimism Follow me: Twitter: @crushthemarket #FED #Bonds #Yields #Stocks #Pivot #Inflation #FOMC #SPX #DOW #CPI #NDX #XJO #DAX #Powell #Dollar #Gold #Oil #Crude #Markets #DXY #TerminalRate #Commodities #China #Macro

FOMC day saw a volatile day with US stocks crushed after Powell disappoints with no pivot, telling the market more rate hikes coming as inflation isnt going away. Powell comments caused the terminal rate to spike along with bond yields across the board to move higher. The DXY rallied & commodities fell along with stocks n Wednesday. On Friday the NFP was released & the news sent stocks rallying strongly into the close after another volatile session as the market tried to digest the news of a better then expected beat on the jobs report. Reaction from NFP's caused the DXY to give back all of its gains from the week with a massive fall, sending all commodities spiking higher with big moves from Oil up 5%, Gold 3%, Silver 7%, Copper up 8% as well US indices rallying from a weaker dollar. Yields had eased off slightly as well which supported markets on Friday as well but only slightly. I reviewed two different charts from the NFP's from March to October period, showing over 490k full time jobs lost, offset by an equal amount in part time. US stock indices were reviewed including SPX, DOW & NDX for the week & what we could see going forward. DAX index was shown & its relative strength compared to US stocks, as well the Aussie XJO index that looked similar to DAX testing the trend line as support, as it too is looking bullish with only 200 MA to move beyond. Macro look ahead for the week discussed with US mid term elections from Wed Aussie time & CPI report comes out on Fri. Links: https://www.cnbc.com/world/?region=world https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-pulls-rug-out-euphoric-fomc-statement-reaction-terminal-rate-jumps https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goodbadugly-jobs-data-sparks-chaotic-pumpndump-across-markets https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/something-has-snapped-unexplained-23-million-jobs-gap-emerges-broken-payrolls-report https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar?week=next#closed Follow me: Twitter: @crushthemarket #FED #Bonds #Yields #Stocks #Pivot #Inflation #FOMC #SPX #CPI #NDX #XJO #DAX #Powell #NFP #Gold #Silver #Copper #Oil #Crude #Markets #DXY #Terminal Rate #Commodities

Stocks rally strongly as PCE inflation is rising along with wages growth, as the market is hoping a hard FED pivot comes on Thursday FOMC meeting. Last week I covered how the FED was forced into a soft pivot, which continued into this week as stocks rallied most of the week. US savings rate macro data came out showing real adjusted consumption is falling as real wages remain week, while the savings rate of Americans continue to collapse to 2004 levels. Pending sales data also showed worse then expected falls, as the property industry is in a sharp recession fueled by soaring mortgage rates thanks to FED rate hikes. Umich Survey inflation exceptions also saw a pick up as more Americans expect CPI to remain high for longer. With all the weak macro data suggesting the FED will be forced to hike for longer, stocks ignored it all & ripped higher. I cover SPX & NDX charts as well Aussie index XJO, discussing potentially weak price action could occur from FOMC if Powell disappoints. With the charts showing bearish flags or rising pendants. Lastly I cover the massive date dump of macro news coming out this week including FOMC & NFP's on Friday. Links: https://www.cnbc.com/world/?region=world https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/americans-savings-rate-plunges-near-record-lows-inflation-overwhelms-income-growth https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/december-rate-hike-odds-rise-after-feds-favorite-inflation-signals-show-no-signs-slowing https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-pending-home-sales-collapsed-october-weakest-2010 https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/umich-inflation-expectations-increase-september-hope-dips https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar?week=this Follow me: Twitter: @crushthemarket #FED #Bonds #Yields #Stocks #BOE #Pivot #Inflation #PCE #FOMC #SPX #CPI #NDX #XJO #FED #Powell #Property #RBA #NFP

US stocks saw a major rally on Friday, after being down by over 1% in futures markets, as bond yields continued to rally on Fri. This was before news leaked by the FED of a slowing in rate hikes going forward is being considered. I cover why did the FED make this announcement on Friday, with the lead up in problems showing in the financial system globally, including BOE, SNB escalating liquidity injections. In addition I show the issues domestically in the REPO market in US, where the banks are requiring assistance to settle overnight accounts, as credit risks are rising among the banks. Are we following the 2008 crisis once again. I discuss the chart similarities & red flags in the system. Lastly have a look at SPX charts & what levels to look out for this week if we see a counter rally, given its a blackout period from the FED, before the FOMC meeting on the 1st & 2nd November. Links: https://www.cnbc.com/world/?region=world https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-spike-after-wsj-fed-whisperer-hints-pausepivot https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-to-debate-on-whether-and-how-to-signal-plans-for-a-smaller-increase-in-december-wsj-202210211316 https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fedspeak-yentervention-spark-buying-panic-bonds-stocks-gold Follow me: Twitter: @crushthemarket #FED #Bonds #SNB #Stocks #BOE #Pivot #REPO #BANKS #FOMC #SPX

BOE decides to end QE, so we take a look at the Pound & UK Bonds reaction overnight. Markets Update Includes: Review of SPX, NDX, XJO, FTSE, DAX, Gold, Silver & Oil charts. Look ahead at global macro news coming through this week. Links: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cable-gilts-bid-boe-ends-bond-buying-hunt-does-total-u-turn-truss-tax-plan Follow Me @ Twitter: @crushthemarket #SPX, #NDX, #XJO, #FTSE, #DAX, #Gold, #Silver, #BOE, #Oil, #Pound, #Gilts, #Macro, #QE #Bonds

US CPI came in hotter then expected & the markets hated it, with yields soaring & stocks puking on the news. Earlier in the day news from UK Govt & later after the CPI report from the ECB with a leak piece of information saw the markets lift off the lows & reverse all losses from the CPI report. However I believe the biggest contributor of the massive short squeeze was the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) stepping into the market to buy US stocks & bonds to settle the markets. Knowing everyone was short it would take much to go from full panic selling to covering short positions. At the end of the day all sectors of US stocks were higher, Oil rallied with dollar rolling over & US Govt bond yields tapering off the highs. But the bigger questions is what happens next given the FED is no where near fighting CPI & the economy & markets are looking weak overall. Follow CTM On Twitter @crushthemarket Links to Articles: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/uk-gilts-sterling-surge-reports-kwarteng-folds-tax-cuts-no10-denies https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-core-cpi-surges-40-year-highs https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/markets-puke-cpi-sends-rate-hike-odds-soaring https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-erase-cpi-losses-after-ecb-headlines https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-purgensurge-after-hot-cpi-rate-hike-odds-soar #CPI #Bonds #Stocks #Yields #BOE #ECB #Markets #PPT #Pivot #Gold #Oil

BOE has intervened in the markets to stop UK Government Bonds from collapsing in value back on 28th Sept. This has failed, as they had to intervene twice this week with confidence lost from the markets. Making matters worse the BOE apparently is ending its QE program this Friday. Loss of confidence in UK BOE is leading to problems in US credit market, with many cracks forming. FED quietly sending Swiss Central Bank $3.1B via the swap lines to help bailout a bank..... Does this mean the FED is set to pivot soon? Look ahead at important macro news coming on Wed & Thurs. Follow me on Twitter: @crushthemarket

US markets review of SPX, NDX, Oil markets. Non Farm Payrolls & how it effected yields, rate expectations & market reaction on Friday's US session. Upcoming CPI report & other important macro events due this week.