Yankees vs Red Sox Predictions, Picks, Odds: Fading Severino on Sunday Night Baseball

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The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox will conclude a series on Sunday Night Baseball for the second week in a row.
These two will play a doubleheader today after a rain-out yesterday and each played a mid-week series in between its series from last weekend before facing one another again.
The closest of the primetime duels prompted Red Sox manager Alex Cora to semi-jokingly tell the media he thought the series was getting too much attention. Boston will enter today with a 3-1 season-long advantage over New York; that mark could be evened or decisive by the night's...

The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox will conclude a series on Sunday Night Baseball for the second week in a row.
These two will play a doubleheader today after a rain-out yesterday and each played a mid-week series in between its series from last weekend before facing one another again.
The closest of the primetime duels prompted Red Sox manager Alex Cora to semi-jokingly tell the media he thought the series was getting too much attention. Boston will enter today with a 3-1 season-long advantage over New York; that mark could be evened or decisive by the night's end. 
Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Red Sox vs. Yankees below.
Yankees vs Red Sox odds Yankees vs Red Sox predictions
Here's what we have tonight: A team — albeit a small sample — that has dominated the other this season, a steadily-improving pitcher taking on a steadily regressing one, and an offense that scores the second-most runs in baseball at home against one still missing its most prominent star in the lineup.  Luis Severino will take the mound for the pinstripes tonight, and the struggles of his season are just impossible to look past. This handicap is a fade of him just as much as anything.
Severino has one of the worst expected ERAs in baseball at 6.35. He's given up 4+ runs in three consecutive starts and has mainly been troubled by the hard-hit ball. That's a problem facing this Boston Red Sox team with plenty of hard hitters in its lineup. 
Boston isn't a team that ranks tremendously high in barrel rate or exit velocity, but when you pull back the curtain, you see more of the full story. The BoSox rank in the Top 10 in the expected slugging, wOBA, and batting average; only five other teams in baseball can claim that.
And as I've mentioned, this offense gears up in Fenway and averages an entire run higher there. You can pick which Severino metrics you want to target; they're all bad. However, the barrel and whiff rates in the Bottom 20% of baseball are particularly troubling. The Red Sox have shown they are both a good-hitting and unlucky team. That's a bad combo for Severino. 
On the other side, I mentioned Brayan Bello steadily building over his last few starts, and one of the best examples of that was his most recent. It came against this Yankees team, where he allowed just two earned runs over seven innings. You could make the case it was his best start of the season, and even a skeptic would have to say he's improving.
"The kid is growing up," Cora said after that last start. It's easy to see and I expect more of the same tonight. This Yankees lineup continues to suffer with the void left by Aaron Judge's absence. As long as Bello's command is in check, he should be able to work through this lineup comfortably before handing things off to a well-rested bullpen. 
It's a juicy price, but it's the best bet in tonight's game. I priced them at -155 this evening, which gives me a comfortable edge.  My best bet: Red Sox moneyline (-137 at BetRivers) Yankees vs Red Sox same-game parlay Red Sox ML Red Sox first-inning 3-way ML Our same-game parlay tonight couldn't be simpler, and at the price point, it's pretty attractive. The theme today has been fading Luis Severino. His time in the starting rotation for the Yankees is almost enough, and tonight could solidify that. 
One of the most significant iss...